The purpose of this web-site is to provide a chapter by chapter overview of this important book – see below. The book can be downloaded chapter by chapter, FREE OF CHARGE, by going to the web site of the publisher, the Earth Policy Institute (EPI) at www.earthpolicy.org.

It can, of course, be purchased at most bookstores. Quantities of more than one copy can be purchased from the Earth Policy Institute at reduce prices..

It should be noted that EPI has not checked this summary and should not be held responsible if there should be any discrepancy herein.

I acknowledge, with thanks, the help I have received with this project from Gordon Churchill, Janice Clark, Marilyn Comchi, and Joan Myles.

Neal Whiting

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Summary

PLAN B 3.0

Mobilizing to Save Civilization

by

Lester R. Brown

Chapter1—Entering a New World

I. A CIVILIZATION IN TROUBLE

Chapter 2—Deteriorating Oil and Food Security

Chapter 3—Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas

Chapter 4—Emerging Water Shortages

Chapter 5—Natural Systems Under Stress

Chapter 6—Early Signs of Decline

II. THE RESPONSE--PLAN B

Chapter 7—Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population

Chapter 8—Restoring the Earth

Chapter 9—Feeding Eight Billion Well

Chapter 10—Designing Cities for People

Chapter 11—Raising Energy Efficiency

Chapter 12—Turning to Renewable Energy

III. AN EXCITING NEW OPTION

Chapter 13—The Great Mobilization

Chapter 1—Entering a New World

Time is running out; we must mobilize to save civilization.This is the urgent message of Lester Brown, author of Plan B 3.0 “Mobilizing to Save Civilization”.

In Chapter 1, “Entering a New World”, Brown argues that our world is changing in life-altering and frightening ways: the ice caps in both the Arctic and Antarctic are disappearing much faster than we had previously anticipated (the Greenland ice cap could be gone by 2030); the sea level could rise by as much as 12 meters (39 feet) displacing over 600 million people and decreasing acres of arable land; glaciers feeding major rivers are rapidly disappearing causing drought conditions and further limiting the acres of arable land; and while all this is happening, the world population is increasing by approximately 70 million people each year.

In addition to the scary prospect of losing land and water while having more and more mouths to feed, Brown asks us to consider the danger of “failed states”, countries whose national governments no longer have the power to maintain law and order, to collect revenue, and to provide basic services – education, health care and food security.  Studies indicate that at least 20 countries are at or near the point of being “failed states”.  No longer must we fear mega powers.  Now the fear is “failed states” for they harbor terrorists and lawlessness; they may become training grounds for terrorists, or sources of drugs as in Myanmar and Afghanistan.  Power may be taken over by local warlords, tribal chiefs or street gangs.  As many as 46 countries are now considered to be fragile or failing states.

In a section entitled “A Massive Market Failure,” the point is made that many important decisions are made in our society, based on market information.  However, the author argues, there are significant factors that are not taken into consideration.  As an example of taking environmental factors into consideration, the government of China arrived at a decision that, in the Yangtze River Valley, trees standing and preventing soil erosion, were three times as valuable as what they would bring on the market.  Similar environmental considerations would result in gasoline being priced at $15 per gallon, in the American context, rather than the approximate price of $3, at the time of writing.  Brown states “… the market is giving us bad information, and as a result we are making bad decisions – so bad that they are threatening civilization.”

Brown asks us to consider the great Sumerian and Mayan civilizations: both were successful and advanced in their times - both failed.  Over-exploitation of their environment caused their demise.  This is the situation that we now find ourselves in.  He refers to a 2002 study which concludes “that humanity’s collective demands first surpassed the earth’s regenerative capacity around 1980.”  The situation is out of balance. We have reached the tipping point. What was once a slow gradual change will become irreversible unless we act quickly, collectively, and purposefully.

Plan A is to continue to do what we are doing now and continuing to get the results that we are now getting.   

But Brown offers us Plan B – A Plan of Hope.  He assures us that for every problem we now face there is a solution and that every solution proposed is presently being practiced in some part of the world   However, we must act without delay.  “Mobilizing to save civilization” needs to be done with the kind of urgency that marked the mobilization of the U.S. when they entered World War II in 1941.

I. A CIVILIZATION IN TROUBLE

Chapter 2—Deteriorating Oil and Food Security

“The twentieth century was the oil century.”In the course of 100 years oil production has increased 180-fold, allowing an explosive growth in worldwide food production, population and urbanization.Fuel consuming trains, cars and planes have increased human mobility, moving people great distances in very little time.We have become an oil based civilization, totally dependant on a resource that many sources say “has reached its peak”.

The Coming Decline of Oil Many petroleum geologists believe that 95 percent of the world’s oil has already been discovered. “The whole world has been seismically searched and picked over. ”It has been estimated that world oil discoveries total two trillion barrels, of which one trillion have been extracted. Experts agree that this has been “easy oil”; oil which has been found on or near the shore, close to the surface and in large reservoirs. In the past, oil has been produced in friendly, safe and welcoming places. Future production will be tough, with scattered, hard to find reservoirs, buried deep underground in unfriendly and politically dangerous locations. The Alberta tar sands falls into the “tough oil” category as heating and extracting oil relies heavily on the use of natural gas and is a process that has a severe environmental impact. This process is not cheap and the net energy is low. Our way of life has become dependant on rising oil production and until now, we have lived secure in the promise that production would exceed our demand.

Oil producing countries can be divided into three groups: those whose production is falling, those whose production is still rising and finally those who are on the verge of a downturn. Post peak countries include the United States reporting a decline of 47 percent in 2006. Venezuela, United Kingdom and Norway are also members of this group. Pre-peak countries include Russia who has become the world’s largest oil producer, Canada, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, Qatar, Libya and the United Arab Emirates. Those nearing decline include Saudi Arabia, Mexico and China.Can production increase enough in the so called pre-peak countries to offset the decline already underway in the post peak countries?“ Projections by the International Energy Agency and the US Department of Energy expect world oil consumption to go from roughly 85 million barrels a day to close to 120 million barrels a day by 2030. " Are we recognizing the very real possibility of a worldwide shortage or are we simply “oblivious to the flashing red light on the earth’s fuel gauge”?

As previously mentioned, the twentieth century has been one of tremendous change made possible because of the abundance oil production. Our way of life has been molded by these changes and our standard of expectation has increased our reliance on a sustained production of oil. Changes through this past century have created more issues that also draw from the energy bank and experts project that we will soon be in a deficit situation.

Changing Oil Intensity of Food

• Developing countries rely more on fossil fuels with shift from animals to tractors.
• Urbanization reduces recycling of nutrients back to soil.
• Fertilizer use has increased
• Fertilizer production is energy intensive.
• Irrigation uses more energy as water table falls.
• Pumping of water is required.
• Transport, processing, packaging, marketing of food uses 4/5 of energy from food production.
• Energy needed for packaging food exceeds the energy needed to produce it.
• Shipment of fresh fruits and vegetables from all over the world is very energy intensive.
• Most energy intensive segment of food chain is energy used to prepare and store it.
• Oil dominates the production end of the food system and electricity dominates the consumption end.
• This modern food system will not survive as it is with the rising of energy prices.

Changing Food Prospect World grain harvest tripled since 1950 largely due to expanding crop areas, near tripling of irrigated areas, 10-fold increase in fertilizer use and rapid dissemination of high- yielding varieties of corn, wheat and rice. World grain production has fallen below the growth in the world population since 1984. World soybean harvest has had enormous growth since 1984 and has prevented an increase in hungry people in the world up to the late 1990 ‘s. World hunger has been on the rise since then World grain production has fallen short of consumption in seven of the last eight years. World’s farmers struggling to produce enough to feed 70 million more people each year. Food supply further challenged by demand for grain to produce fuel (ethanol) for cars.

Cars and People Compete for Crops Investment in corn-based distilleries have become hugely profitable with jumping oil prices. In the U.S. corn used in ethanol production will double before the end of this decade. China is following this trend. Brazil has converted half of its sugarcane crop into fuel ethanol. India also produces ethanol largely from its sugarcane crops. The European union is committed to obtaining 10 percent of its automotive fuel from plant based sources. This includes bio diesel from vegetable oil and palm oil imported from Indonesia and Malaysia and ethanol from grain. Market for crop-based fuels is rising rapidly, moving the price of grain toward its oil equivalent value. The price of grain is keyed to the price of oil. Emerging competition between owners of world’s 860 million automobiles and the two billion poorest people for grain crops that no longer meet the demand of the world’s growing population.

Food Insecurity and Failing States Rising grain prices will lead to chaos in grain markets, food riots and failing states as governments that cannot provide food security will lose legitimacy and be ripe for political instability, civil strife, conflict and upheaval.

Sharp rise in grain prices will also result in sharp decline in food assistance programs.

In 2007, 33 countries with a total population of 763 million, were in need of food assistance. Of these, 17 countries were in need as a result of internal conflict. Failing states, if they continue to decline, will affect agricultural development and technical support as well as flow of seeds and fertilizer. Failing states result in decreased personal security, which makes it difficult to operate food relief programs. Even though people are starving, it becomes more difficult to reach them with food.

Change Beyond the Oil Decline

Problems:

Few countries are planning for a reduction in oil to compensate for decreased production. Continued expansion of auto assembly plants (recent changes in auto industry with rising gas prices), roads, parking lots and suburban developments continue.

Large jetliner continue to be delivered with expectation that air travel and global transportation of food will continue to show growth.

Automobile infrastructure ( ie roadways, highways) require energy for maintenance.

Urbanization concentrating the demand for food, water and materials in large cities then

managing the dispersing of garbage and waste.As cities continue to grow, landfill sites

reach their capacity and garbage must to hauled further away.

Urban sprawl isolates people from jobs, shops, school resulting in greater use of the car.

Large cities continue to spread into agricultural areas and reduce available fertile land.

Solutions

Minimal or no-tillage cultivation practices.

Buying local produce.

Reduce unnecessary packaging.

Raising fuel-efficiency standards by 20 percent

Shift to efficient gas-electric hybrid plug-in cars

Invest in wind farms in wind rich countries such as United States, China and Europe

Do not use food crops to fuel cars (drives up food prices) but use fast growing trees,

switchgrass, prairie grass mixture which can be grown on wasteland.

Use of jatropha plants in wasteland.Seds can be used for bio diesel.

Reduce urban sprawl and maintain valuable agricultural land.

“Historically, the food and energy economies were separate.” There is a growing trend that the two economies are merging into one. Technology has made it possible to use food as fuel. The temptation is great as “the average income of the world’s automobile owners is roughly $30,000 a year; the 2 billion poorest people earn on average less than $3000 a year”

The next two chapters discuss rising temperatures, rising seas and emerging water shortages. How will these variables affect the very crops that are being pulled in two directions----to feed or fuel.

Chapter 3—Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas

Civilization has evolved during a period of remarkable climate stability, but we are in a period of instability. Climate change is now. The earth is getting warmer and we can see evidence of this already. If we cannot turn around this shift then a rise of 12 metres (39 feet) can be expected. Coastal cities will be underwater and large numbers of displaced people will result. Since 2002 food harvests have been reducing due to record high temperatures. At least 52,000 people have also died due to record breaking temperatures. Weather related insurance claims have soared. Insurance predictions based on past patterns no longer hold.

Meteorologists, studying the data on the last 120 years have noted the 23 warmest years have occurred in the last 28 years. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere has risen by ⅓ in roughly 200 years of industrial development. This rise shows exponential growth in the last 100 years. Predictions are that the earth’s average temperatures will rise 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius in this century. While this is an earth average, local temperatures will be more extreme. Loss of watershed glaciers, and diminished crop yields would result. Between 1970 and 2002 the percentage of earth surface experiencing drought increased from 15% to 30%. Wildfires, species extinction, changing ecosystems, and seasonal shifts are already reported.

Agricultural changes are evident. Temperature increases decrease crop productivity. In plants, photosynthesis operates at its optimum between 20 and 35 degrees Celsius. Higher temperatures cause decline to 40 degrees when photosynthesis ceases. Pollination is disrupted, resulting in falling food production. Studies show that 1 degree above the norm temperatures produces 10% reduction in crop yield. Reducing yield increases problems feeding the earth’s population.

Increasing temperatures result in lower precipitation and loss of glacial melt waters. China expects to lose ⅔ of it’s glaciers by 2060, and subsequent crop failures that threaten millions of lives. In Africa Mt. Kilimanjaro is expected to lose all snow cover by 2015 with the result that rivers will become seasonal. South America is predicted to lose 80% of it’s glaciers in 15 years resulting in winter flooding and summer droughts. Major human hunger and thirst will result.

The increasing temperatures will result in melt of polar ice caps. The Arctic temperatures have risen 3-4 degrees Celsius in 50 years, resulting in a 9.1% reduction in Arctic sea ice per decade. The result may be a tipping point of climate change affecting climates further south. The sea ice melt will not change sea levels however, it will speed melt of land ice. Glacial decay is melting the ice sheet which covers Greenland to 2 kilometers deep increasing sea levels. In Antarctica, ice shelf degradation has created icebergs of 11,000 square km's. As these shelves break off the glacial movement behind them has increased. 10 meters rise in sea level will displace some 640 million people. Many of the worlds largest cities would be inundated. Agricultural loss would also result in major problems of hunger. Added political stress will threaten already shaky governments in the world poorer nations.

Major storms will disrupt human habitation. Hurricane Katrina which hit the Gulf Coast of the US in 2005 is illustrative. More than a million people were displaced and three years later less than half have returned. Other Hurricanes have occurred in recent years. Major floods have increased from 6 in the 1950’s to 26 in the 1990’s. Munich Re has listed disasters in which insurance costs exceeded $1 billion. The first was in 1983, and as of 2006 58 had occurred, 55 of them weather related. A consultant on climate change notes that damage from weather related events has increased 10% per year. Weather related damage will exceed the gross world product in 2065. At this rate, costs of cutting greenhouse gasses estimated at 1% of Gross World Production would be a bargain.

A study in 2004 showed that carbon emissions from fossil fuels could be held at 7 billion tons. They described 15 ways to cut carbon emissions using proven technologies. In that plan the emissions could be cut to 2 billion tons by 2104, an amount which can be absorbed by natural carbon sinks.

In contrast, in Plan B we propose an all-out effort to cut net carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by 2020. Our goal is to prevent the atmospheric CO2 concentration from exceeding 400 ppm, thus limiting the future rise in temperature. This is an extraordinarily ambitious undertaking. We can, however, make this shift using currently available technologies. Plan B includes a wholesale restructuring of the world energy economy with a wartime sense of urgency, much as the U.S. restructured its industrial economy in a matter of months at the beginning of World War II. (See Chapter 13.) The stakes in World War II were high, but they are far higher today. What is at issue now is whether we can mobilize fast enough to save our global civilization.

Chapter 4—Emerging Water Shortages

Lake Chad in Africa, which was once a landmark for astronauts, has shrunk 96 percent in 40 years.It has been the victim of heavy demands for water for irrigation, compounded by a rapidly rising area population.It is only one of many similar situations on the globe. Brown states that “the world is incurring a vast water deficit – one that is largely invisible, historically recent, and growing fast.”

Countries representing a majority of the world’s people are experiencing falling water tables.As countries are faced with water scarcity, water may be diverted from irrigation to other uses, and food imported to offset the lower crop yields resulting from reduced irrigation.

Most aquifers are replenish able, but fossil aquifers are not. The Ogallala aquifer that underlies portions of eight U.S., states, as well as the deep aquifer underlying the North China Plain, and the Saudi aquifer, are not replenish able. A 2001 report indicates that in Hebei Province in North China Plain, the water level is dropping nearly three metres a year, and even faster in other areas. It was noted “that as the deep aquifer is depleted, the region is losing its last water reserve—its only safety cushion.” The World Bank reports the situation as catastrophic “unless water use and supply can quickly be brought back into balance.” Falling water tables is one of the factors in China’s shrinking grain harvest which fell from a peak of 123 million tons in 1997, to 105 million tons in 2007. The World Bank study indicates that when the aquifer beneath the Hai River basin is depleted, China’s grain harvest will fall by another 40 million tons per year.

The situation in India is even more serious. Electricity blackouts are occurring because “half of the electricity is used to pump water from depths of up to a kilometer,” and in Tamil Nadu, a state in southern India, falling water tables have resulted in the irrigated area being reduced by half in the last decade.In both India and China, the additional power needed to pump water from ever greater depths, is being met by building coal-fired power plants.

Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Mexico are all faced with the depletion of water for irrigation within the not-too-distant future and, as water for irrigation is reduced, populations continue to grow.

And rivers are running dry!The Colorado, in the southwestern U.S., the Yellow, in northern China, the Nile in Egypt, the Ganges in India, and the Indus in Pakistan, are in critical condition for various reasons.

Lakes are drying up!The Sea of Galilee is shrinking.The level of the Dead Sea has dropped 25 metres in the past 40 years. The Aral Sea, in Central Asia, has lost 80 percent of its volume and ports that were once centres of commerce are now ghost towns. The 50,000 tons of seafood that it once produced, has now disappeared as a result of increased concentration of salt. Because of the diversion of water (to irrigate cotton crops) from the two rivers feeding it, the annual inflow of water that once measured 65 billion cubic feet is now reduced to 1.5 billion cubic feet. Another result has been that the wind now carries away thousands of tons of sand and salt, affecting the fertility of the land downwind.

In China, out of 4,077 lakes in Qinha province, in excess of 2,000 lakes have disappeared in the last 20 years. And in Hebei province, where Beijing is located, 969 of 1,052 lakes have disappeared as water tables have fallen.

Mexico’s Lake Chapala, the major source of water for Guadalajara, has been reduced by 80 percent, due to expanding irrigation.

In a section titled “Farmers Losing to Cities,” the author discusses the competition between farmers using water for irrigation and the need of cities for water. While it takes 1,000 tons of water to raise one ton of food worth $200, it requires only 14 tons of water to make a ton of steel worth $560.Water for people’s use in cities is of more value than for irrigation, so that available water is used by cities and compensated for by importing food.

In Chennai, a city of seven million in India, the city has been unable to provide water for some of its residents, and farmers of the surrounding area make more money by trucking water to the city than they can by irrigating farm crops. However, the water table is falling and wells are going dry.

In China, the Juma River was diverted in 2004, to provide water for the state-owned petrochemical plant, resulting in the loss of water to 120,000 villagers who lived downstream from the plant.

“Literally hundreds of cities in other countries,” are taking water available to farmers to satisfy their city’s needs. In Colorado, towns and cities are buying irrigation water rights to satisfy the needs of their residents. San Diego, in southern California, in a 2003 deal, extending for 75 years, bought rights from farmers for 247 million tons of water a year.

As the world’s farmers try to feed an additional 70 million people a year, they are losing to cities, the rights to water.

In a section titled “Scarcity Crossing National Borders,” the point is made that since it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce a ton of grain, importing grain is the equivalent of importing water.Many countries, being short of water and being unable to grow enough food for their population, import much of their food in the form of grain. The grain markets of the world reflect the competition for water. Whereas smaller countries have been the main grain importers, with declining reserves of water, both China and India are expected to be increasing importers of grain. In a statement by the International Water Management Institute the point is made that China, India, Pakistan, Mexico, and most countries of the Middle East and North Africa have been meeting their need for food by using up their supply of groundwater, which is now reaching depletion. The report states that this mismanagement of water resources can have catastrophic results, not only for those countries, but for the whole world.

An annual supply of 1,700 cubic metres water per person is ample. However countries in North Africa and the Middle East experience stressful water situations. To name a few:Morocco and Egypt, less than 1,000 cubic metres per person; Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, less than 500, representing acute shortage; Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait, and Israel, less than 300.Kenya and Rwanda are among a number of sub-Saharan countries that also face stressful water shortages. Although China, India, and the U.S., appear, on the surface, to have adequate water supplies, there are regions in each that suffer from acute shortages.In Pakistan, in the province of Balochistan, as water tables are falling rapidly, the situation is made more critical as Afghan refugees swell the population.

In Iraq, the building of dams on the Euphrates, by Turkey and Syria, is a matter of concern. Between Israelis and Palestinians, the way water is divided is a source of conflict.

From a global perspective, as population grows, the growth tends to be in those areas where water supply is already critical.

In the face of crucial water shortages, Brown makes the point that there are means available to increase water use efficiency while stabilizing population.

Chapter 5—Natural Systems Under Stress

Ancient cities have disappeared as a result of land mismanagement.As a modern example, Lesotho is said to face a catastrophe “if steps are not taken to reverse soil erosion, degradation, and decline in soil fertility.”It is reported that many children are too weak to walk to school.The health of people is related to the health of the land on which they live. A large part of the world’s poor live on lands “worn thin by erosion.” As a result of increasing demands, forests, rangelands, and fisheries, are being subjected to demands that they are unable to meet.

As a result of flooding, landslides, and loss of life, China, the Philippines, and Thailand, have banned tree cutting, having learned the cost of deforestation. It is estimated that world forests have shrunk by about 20 percent during the 20^th Century. Although forests in the industrial world are increasing, the net loss per year exceeds seven million hectares.This however, does not reflect the gravity of the situation, as 60 percent of remaining forests cannot be classified as, nor fulfill all the functions of frontier forest. Forests are being decimated by world demand for wood for fuel, newsprint, lumber, and now, palm oil as bio diesel. fuel, as well as clearing land for farming. A significant area of concern is the attack on the world’s bio diversity. Forests are important for the retention of moisture and the sequestration of carbon from CO2.

In a section titled “Losing Soil,” the author describes how soil, the basis of plant life and therefore of animal life and of civilization, is being lost. Dust bowls similar to that formed in the Great Plains of the U.S. in the 1930s, took shape in Russia in the 1950s, and are now forming in large areas in China and Africa.In Mongolia, with a population of 2.6 million, vast areas of wheat land have been given up and the country now imports 60 percent of its wheat. Huge storms, originating in these dust bowls – soil being carried into the ocean – are now visible from satellites in space. Mexico and Brazil are also faced with serious desertification. The arrest of desertification requires, among other things, the stabilizing of global human and animal populations.

World fisheries are collapsing.In response to growing demand for seafood, following World War II, and enabled by advances in fishing technology, the harvest of wild seafood grew from 7 kilograms per person in 1950, to 17 kilograms per person in 1988. The harvest has now fallen to 14 kilograms per person. As a result of growing demand and modern fishing technology, some fisheries have collapsed while others are facing collapse. A 2003 study reported that, in the last 50 years, 90 percent of oceanic large fish have disappeared. As the cod fishery of Canada failed in the early 1990s, New England is close behind, and those of Europe may have been depleted beyond recovery. Wherever over fishing is not curtailed, collapse of the fishery is a very real possibility. Stocks of Atlantic blue fin tuna have been reduced by 94 percent. Caspian Sea sturgeon harvest has fallen from 27,700 tons in 1977 to 461 tons in 2000. he oyster harvest in the U.S. Chesapeake fell from 35 million to about 1 million pounds per year, as as result of over fishing, pollutants, disease, and silt resulting from soil erosion. After much difficult negotiation, the EU arrived at agreement on catch limits, which were however insufficient to stop the decline. The North Sea cod fishery is threatened with collapse. The much subsidized EU fishing fleet pay west African countries for licenses to fish off their coasts. This provides significant revenues for these countries but, unfortunately, these fisheries are also faced with collapse.

Many spawning areas have disappeared while others are declining. Coral reefs in the Caribbean and the Red Sea are threatened and facing extinction as a result of destructive fishing practices, sewage discharges, among other causes. Dead zones are resulting from sewage discharge and fertilizer runoff. In 2006 the U.N. Environment Program reported that “there were more than 200 dead zones in the world’s oceans and seas, up from149 two years earlier.” The demand for seafood, that is growing worldwide, can only be satisfied by expanding fish farming.

Five great extinctions have occurred since life began on earth, the most recent being about 65 million years ago, wiping out the dinosaurs and one fifth or more of the life forms in existence at that time. A sixth great extinction, of human origin, is now under way. The disappearance of various life forms lessens natural services such as control of insects, seed dispersal, and pollination, etc. “The web of life” is weakened by such loss of species.

Habitat alteration and destruction poses a threat to various species. Threat to habitat results from such things as chemical pollution and rising temperatures. Another threat to existing species is the introduction of exotic species. A developing tragedy is the disappearance of the Amazon rain forest with its multitude of species.

Large percentages of the world’s bird, mammal, and fish species are faced with extinction: of nearly 10,000 bird species, 12%; of 5,416 mammal species, 20%; of fish species analyzed, 39%.Of known primate species, other than human, 114 of 296 are at risk. A great ape species found in West Africa, the bonobo, “our closest living relative,” has declined by 90% in a generation, being a source of bush meat, and also because of habitat destruction. Of special concern since 2006, is the decline of the honeybee. If a remedy cannot be found quickly, “the world could face an unprecedented disruption of fruit and vegetable production.” The threat to fish, resulting from over fishing and pollution, among other things, is particularly great.

Of the threats to animal and plant varieties, that is presently of great concern, is the expansion of agriculture in Brazil, where land is being cleared to graze cattle, grow soybeans, and, a recent development, to grow sugarcane for the production of ethanol.

Protection of the earth’s diversity now depends upon the stabilization of population and climate.

The author states:

On the plus side, we now have more information on the state of

the earth and the life on it than ever before. While knowledge

is not a substitute for action, it is a prerequisite for saving the

earth’s natural systems—and the civilization that they support.

Chapter 6—Early Signs of Decline

While progress continues, signs of decline are emerging. Average life expectancy has fallen for the first time in the modern era. The gaps between rich and poor are immense. Economically, educationally, in terms of health care, environmentally, politically, and the number of failing states show this.

The gap between the 1 billion poorest and the 1 billion richest is without precedent. The UN reports that 862 million are malnourished while 1.6 billion are overweight. For the hungry, full mental and physical development is stunted. In India and Bangladesh half of children under five are underweight. Most of these are in landless rural families. The long term results are impaired immune systems, neurological damage, and retarded physical growth. Infectious diseases are rampant. Millions of fatalities result from untreated water. Yet the wealthy suffer illnesses of aging and lifestyle.

Education levels also show disparity. In some of the richest countries half of all young people graduate from college, but in the poorest more than 70 million are not even enrolled in school. More than ¾ of a billion people cannot read or write. Some have made great progress in education, however, the poorest, illiteracy increased. In the most illiterate, families are larger, poverty is deeper, health care is worse. The challenge is to break the poverty cycle for the poorest.

Infectious diseases are emerging as crises. The effects of chemical pollution is growing as a problem. Malaria claims 1 million per year, mostly in Africa. HIV is on the scale of the plagues for the poor. Emerging in 1981, by 2006 HIV had climbed to 86 million. Half of these have died, and only 3% have retro viral treatment. Several countries in Africa expect to lose ⅕ of their adult population in 10 years. The result has been falling food production, education, health care, and rising numbers of orphans. HIV can be treated but it will take international cooperation.

Air and water pollutants are damaging health everywhere. 200 diseases are traceable to pollution. Cancer is rising in most of the world. Inadequate enforcement leaves millions vulnerable. Even tin the US tests show high levels of carcinogenic pollution in new born's. WHO data shows 3 million deaths a year from air pollution. Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and motor neuron diseases are showing sharp increases and links to rise in concentration of pollutants. Gold mining and coal burning power generation releases massive amounts of mercury into the environment. In the US one out of six women has enough mercury in her system to harm a developing fetus.

Throw away products, clog landfills and exhaust limited resources. At a 2% growth in manufacturing rate, forecasts show we will have exhausted our supplies of lead, tin, copper, iron ore and bauxite in 70 years. Landfill sites are becoming more problematic. New York city needs 600 semi trailer rigs a day to haul garbage to landfills, increasing traffic congestion, air pollution and potential water pollution. Many major world cities are facing a crisis in garbage disposal.

Increasing population and shrinking resources are threatening millions of people. The grain land to feed one person has cut in half since 1950 to .1 hectares. Shrinking food supplies result is social conflict. War in Sudan has killed 2 million and displaced 4 million as tension between Arab herders and Christian farmers erupted in war. Sudan’s population of 9 million in 1950 grew to 39 million in 2007 while cattle, sheep and goats increased from 21 million to 153 million. Grasslands were devastated. This pattern is repeated all around the Sahara desert. Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Eritrea, Democratic Republic of the Congo all show similar tensions. In India, Egypt, Israel, Turkey, and the Aral Sea Basin water shortage are causing tensions.

Deserts are growing, so are the refugee problems. It is expected that 60 million people will be displaced from sub-Saharan Africa by 2020. Already boatloads of illegal refugees have arrived in Europe and the Americas. In 2006 the Mexico reported the detention and deportation of 240,000 from the US. In North America and Europe desperate people are dying attempting to enter developed nations. With 3 billion people expected to be added to the world by 2050, and the impact of rising sea levels, it will get much worse.

Studies indicate that there are currently 60 states that are vulnerable to internal conflict and social deterioration. Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Chad head the list. Among the 60 are three oil exporting nations and one with a nuclear arsenal. Some of the stressors are: uneven development, the loss of governmental legitimacy, demographic pressure, loss of foreign investment, unemployment, deterioration of infrastructure, and loss of natural systems. Examples of failed states are Haiti, Afghanistan, and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Millions have died of war, famine, illness, and dehydration. These states become havens for terrorists, drugs, weapons, and refugees. Failed states threaten their neighbors. If the number of failed states increases the resources of the rest of the world to stabilize them will quickly be exhausted. Equally, failed states threaten the work of organizations to control and eradicate major diseases.

II. THE RESPONSE--PLAN B

Chapter 7—Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population

In 2000 we set a goal of cutting in half the number of people in poverty by 2015. By 2007 we were well on the way. China and India and others in South East Asia made massive gains. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, extreme poverty is over 50%.

Other goals included cutting hunger by 50%. Hunger has grown. Universal primary school access is fading in many countries. Universal access to reproductive health care is very difficult for the 2 billion who live on less that 2$ per day. Unless population can be stabilized, world population is not sustainable. Unless poverty can be eradicated and populations stabilized, the increased risks of failed states becomes a world security issue. Urgent action on both fronts is critical.

Universal education will narrow the gap between rich and poor. Illiteracy is a severe handicap. The World Bank has taken offered financial support, requiring three things: a sensible plan, a commitment of a meaningful share of resources, and transparent budgeting and accounting. By 2005 83% of children had completed primary school. Universal education could be achieved in ⅔ of the worlds countries. Education is the key to eliminating poverty, reducing birth rates, improved agricultural practices and reducing HIV infections. Critical to this is teacher training. Most difficult and important is the education of girls in hard to reach areas.

While volunteers can help, $10 billion is external funding is needed. Materials, basic nutrition for students, and health care are needed. Rising education rates reduces the numbers of those liable to fall into terrorism.

World population stability is also critical. There are countries whose population is dropping, those where it is essentially stable such as China and the US, and a third group where populations will double in 40 years. The highest projection is world population will reach, 10.8 billion by 2050, a medium estimate -9.2 billion by 2050, and the low at 8 billion in 2041. Family planning is the key, but it is absent for more than 200 million couples. Fortunately this is not difficult to implement. Experience has shown that coordinated efforts can half family sizes in a few years. Formal education is very useful, but so also is the use of popular entertainment. Exposure to well crafted dramas presenting basic information has produced dramatic results. Births have fallen by as much as 55% and so has infant mortality. One report showed that $62 spent on preventing unwanted births saved $615 in social program dollars. This saving quickly spirals builds.

Infectious diseases are a critical problem in poor countries. Progress to reduce child mortality has lagged badly. In 23 countries, mortality rates have not changed. Safe and reliable drinking water is key. Water free waste disposal systems can reduce the water born pathogens.(See composting chapter 10) It also reduces water usage. A simple oral re-hydration training program has dramatically reduced child mortality. Global use of this has reduced child mortality from 4.6 million to 1.6 million due to diarrhea. The eradication of smallpox, saves millions of dollars in immunization and health care. World investment has reduced polio to 700 cases a year. Similar result have been shown with other diseases. Through education and legislation tobacco use is also dropping. In the US, usage has dropped by half since 1976 reducing the cost to the health care system.

HIV is being curbed. In 2006 4.3 million were infected. Basic education about prevention and the distribution of condoms is having an impact on the infection rates. $550 million dollars would supply the world with 17.5 million condoms annually and save millions of lives. The costs of education and distribution would raise that to $3 billion. Of the 4.6 million in sub Saharan Africa infected, less than a quarter are being treated with anti-retro viral therapy, but double the number of the previous year.

Changing the structure of world farm subsidies will alter poverty. Affluent countries spend $280 billion on farm subsidies, 2.5 times the amount on development assistance. Subsidies overproduce food which is sent abroad, cutting prices and driving local producers out of business. Unless local poor farmers can get money for their crops they will never break out of the poverty cycle. Debt forgiveness for the poorest countries will also have dramatic results. In sub Saharan Africa, debt-servicing is four times the health care budget. In 2005, 18 countries had their debt cancelled and 20 more are potentially eligible. Zambia, as a result offered free health care to its citizens. Other similar results have occurred.

Countries with rapidly growing population are experiencing demographic fatigue providing jobs, safe environment, education and health care for these young people. Where population growth stabilizes, productivity surges, savings and investment climb, and economic growth accelerates. This becomes a tipping point that with care can radically change the problems.

It is estimated that it would cost $77 billion a year to eradicate poverty. This is substantially cheaper than agricultural subsidies, and much cheaper than chaos, illness and instability. This investment can shape the world our children live in.

Chapter 8—Restoring the Earth

Human life on earth is dependent upon earth’s natural systems—for materials that we use to food that we eat. If civilization is to survive, natural support systems must be stabilized. Haiti is cited as an example where ecological and social collapses have resulted in “social injustice, disease, and violence,” what the rest of the world faces unless preventative measures are taken. Such measures require immense international cooperation at wartime speed, if environmental degradation is not to lead to the collapse of our civilization as has happened to other civilizations of the past.

Protecting the forests that remain and restoring those that have been lost is essential in order to diminish rainfall runoff, thereby cutting down on flooding and soil erosion, and restoring aquifers. Pressure on forests can be reduced in industrial countries by decreasing the use of paper and, in developing countries, by reducing the use of wood for fuel. Another means of reducing pressure on forests is by recycling. With regard to recycling, at the time of writing, the author notes that, of the top ten paper producing countries, South Korea leads by recycling 77% of paper, while two of the largest users, China and the U.S., are far behind. The use of reusable products in place of throwaway facial tissues, paper towels, diapers and shopping bags would result in reductions in the amount of wood consumed.More efficient wood cook stoves, as well as solar cooking units are being introduced in some places.

Some countries, e.g., the Philippines, have banned logging.Such action is often for the purpose of protecting services such as prevention of flooding and soil erosion.

The responsible management of forests has been receiving attention. The World Bank and the World Wildlife Fund have joined forces to reduce deforestation. As a result of their action, 55 million hectares have been designated as “forest protected areas,” and 22 million hectare of forest have been certified.One measure being taken to reduce is the development of forest plantations, which, as of 2005, had grown to 205 million hectares. China, India, and the United States, lead in the development of forest plantations. Plantations in countries closer to the equator experience faster growth than in countries farther away; e.g., Canadian plantations produce 4 cubic metres of growth per year compared to 40 in Brazil. On the other hand, grain crops tend to produce more at farther distances from the equator, e.g., corn yields in the U.S., are three times as high as in Brazil. It is possible that, in the future, wood needed for industrial purposes could be entirely produced by plantations and, in that way, the world’s forests could be protected. It is also suggested that plantations might produce vast quantities of nuts, to be used as a source of protein and that trees grown in plantations on deforested land could be used to produce ethanol.

As a result of natural re growth, reforestation has happened in the New England states, due to lands being opened up farther west, so that forest cover has increased from approximately 1/3 to 4/5 over the last two centuries. A similar thing is taking place in the former Soviet Union and in some East European countries.In South Korea, denuded of trees at the end of the Korean War, a reforestation program has resulted in approximately 65% of the country now being reforested. Important reforestation programs are also being carried out in Turkey and Niger.In the latter, farmers, faced with drought and desertification, began leaving acacia seedlings, reducing erosion and enriching the soil, while providing fodder for livestock, as well as a source of firewood. Brown indicates ways in which protection of forests can be furthered. They include governments switching “from building logging roads to planting trees; working with farmers to integrate the planting of trees with farm operation; and, importantly, “by developing more efficient wood stoves and alternative cooking fuels … recycling paper, and banning the use of throwaway paper products….”The world’s forests can be restored but it must go hand-in-hand with the stabilization of population.

Restoring the earth entails restoring land that has been affected by erosion and desertification.Over the last 50 years much protective cover has been lost by clear cutting, overgrazing, and over plowing. Protecting highly erodable land requires planting and maintaining cover in the form of grass or trees. In the U.S., measures taken to address problems of erosion that occurred in the 1930s, included the planting of shelter belts and strip farming.In recent times a practice that is growing is that of no-til or minimum tillage. No-til is the practice of drilling seed directly into the stubble and using herbicides to control weeds. Millions of hectares are now being cropped in this way, with the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, Canada and Australia leading. The practice is growing in Europe, Asia, and Africa. And other measures are being taken. Algeria is resisting the approach of the Sahara by concentrating, in the south, on orchards and vineyards. Morocco is encouraging switching from cereal crops to olive and fruit orchards. China is planning a belt of trees, a Great Green Wall, stretching 4,480 kilometers, to halt the encroachment of the Gobi Desert. In addition, China is moving to reduce sheep and goat grazing, as their small hooves tend to break the surface of the land and make it more vulnerable to erosion.

A worldwide ban on clear cutting is warranted, states the author, concluding the section:

“Restoring the earth’s tree and grass cover, as well as practicing conservation agriculture, protects soil from erosion, reduces flooding, and sequesters carbon.It is one way we can restore the earth so that it can support the next generation.”

For the regeneration of fisheries, the only promising approach is the establishment of marine reserves or marine parks, which has shown remarkable results at a relatively modest cost in relation to the value of the annual fish harvest running at $70-80 billion per year. However fisheries continue to be decimated by “unsustainable fishing, pollution, and mineral exploitation.” One study indicates that marine parks could be supported at less cost than is presently being spent on subsidies in support of fishing. Two critical problem for fisheries are “the nutrient flows from fertilizer runoff and untreated sewage that create the world’s 200 or so dead zones.”

Another factor in restoring the earth is the protection of animal and plant diversity. To this end the stabilization of the earth’s population and climate.As the global population grows, there is increasing pressure on farmer “to clear ever more tropical forests in the Amazon and Congo basins and the outer islands of Indonesia.” The protection of fresh water and marine is dependent upon improved water management to avoid the draining of rivers to satisfy water needs for irrigation, as well as for urban dwellers. For the protection of plant and animal species, the best known and most popular method is the creation of reserves, and approximately 13% of the earths land surface is presently identified as parks or preserves. However in developing countries, more resources are needed to enforcement of reserves.

The human population has a great responsibility in view of its ability to affect the habitability of other species.

A very significant aspect of restoring the earth has to do with planting trees to sequester carbon. The difference, as of 2007,between expanding forests in the temperate regions and shrinking forests in tropical regions has the effect of releasing 1.5 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year. Tropical deforestation is occurring for a variety reasons: in Asia, the demand for timber; in Latin America, to satisfy the demand for soybeans and beef; in Africa, for fuel wood; and so on.

The aim of Plan B is to end net deforestation,worldwide, and, by various tree planting projects and improved agricultural practices, to sequester carbon. Dwindling forests are a major source of CO2 at this time.

Three countries, Thailand, the Philippines, and China, have placed partial or, in some cases, total bans on logging because of calamitous flooding and mudslides. Other countries may experience the devastating effect of deforestation. In Brazil, where the Amazon rainforest continues to shrink, there is the risk of it drying out, becoming susceptible to fire, and among other losses, losing its ability to recycle rainwater inland, all-in-all giving rise to environmental, as well as economic disaster.

Whereas, in the past, deforestation has been a relatively local matter, it has now become a global concern as it has implications for climate change and rising seas.In the face of this, a Swedish firm, Vattenfall, has developed a reforestation proposal for addressing the problem.In this vein, a number of countries including Mexico, China, Kenya, and Ethiopia, have already embarked on tree planting campaigns. These are important initiatives for the sequestration of CO2. In addition, there are other agricultural practices that can increase carbon sequestration.

A budget for earth restoration is suggested by the author.Not surprisingly it comes to billions of dollars. However, there are two important points to note:that the budget is for a program for global restoration; and the amount is but a fraction of the amount presently spent globally on armaments.

Chapter 9—Feeding Eight Billion Well

How Many People Can The Earth Support?

The answer depends on the level of food consumption.For example:

At the U.S. level of 800 kilograms of grain per person annually for food and feed, the current 2-billion-ton annual world harvest of grains would support 2.5 billion people.

At the Italian level of consumption of close to 400 kilograms, the current harvest would support 5 billion people.

At the 200 kilograms of grain consumed by the average Indian, it would support a population of 10 billion people.

Feeding people well involves maintaining the delicate balance between population numbers and available food supplies. Even if the world’s population can be stabilized at 8 billion people by 2040, the present food supply must be increased to adequately feed them.

If we are to increase the world’s food supply, we must:

• rethink land productivity
• raise water productivity
• produce protein more efficiently
• move down the food chain
• take action on many fronts.

Rethinking land productivity means:

• breeding crops more tolerant of drought and cold
• increasing the area of multi-cropped land that produces more than one crop per year
• increasing land tenure to encourage farmers to invest in and improve their land.

Raising water productivity means:

• eliminating water and energy subsidies that encourage wasteful water use
• raising the price of water
• providing incentives for adopting more irrigation-efficient technologies
• developing the local institutions to manage this process
• moving down the food chain to food that requires less water.

Producing protein more efficiently means:

• increasing the efficiency with which grain is converted into animal protein
• Moving down the food chain means:
• shifting to consuming fewer livestock products
• increasing consumption of more plant-based foods.

Taking action on many fronts means:

• attending to the forces that foster global warming and that decrease crop acreage and water supply
• working on decreasing the demand rather than working to increase the supply for - water and energy
• diminishing the amount of land that is being devoted to transportation.

Cheap food may now be history.It is incumbent on governments and also on individuals to attend to matters of an over-populated, climate changing, water-scarce world.Food security is a matter for the entire society.

Chapter 10—Designing Cities for People

For the first time, more than one half of mankind lives in cities.

Our attempt to bring the automobile to the city with us pollutes the air so badly that breathing it is the equivalent of smoking 2 packages of cigarettes per day. Because the streets are congested, commuters sit for hours in traffic, burning hydrocarbons and breathing bad air. The price of our dwindling supply of oil raises the costs of moving goods and makes living in suburbs costly.

Developing countries strain to afford the infrastructure to support the love of cars. Eminent scholars in China note that China does not have enough land to accommodate the auto and feed its people too. This is true of India and dozens of other densely populated countries.

The one- time use of water to disperse human and industrial waste is an outmoded and impractical use of our scarce water supply. Poor sanitation and personal hygiene claim 2 million children per year. As poor people move to the city, vast squatter settlements (favelas, barriadas, gechohondu) make it difficult to provide even basic human needs.

When pavement and high rises surround us, our innate human need for contact with nature is not met. We suffer physically and mentally.

Cities should be designed around human beings, not automobiles. Examples of cities that have transformed the quality of urban life are Bogotá, Columbia and Curitiba, Brazil. In just a few years Bogotá banned parking on sidewalks, created or renovated 1,200 parks, planted 100,000 trees, introduced bus based rapid transit and added bike and pedestrian streets. Rush hour traffic is reduced by 40% and the streets in this city of 8 million are safer than in Washington DC. Curitiba also chose bus rapid transit, bicycles and walking. Although the population tripled since l974 the car traffic has declined by 30%.

Experience shows that when public transportation is available and affordable it will be used. Urban transport systems based on a combination of rail lines, (underground and light rail), bus lines, bicycle pathways and pedestrian walkways offer the best of all possible worlds in providing mobility, low-cost transportation and a healthy urban environment.Use of cars can be discouraged and use of public transit encouraged as we have seen in cities such as London, Stockholm, Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim and Singapore.

Bicycles are cheap, non-polluting, require less room on roads and parking lots and increase our level of physical activity. They are invaluable in delivering small parcels. Our cities can be made bike-friendly by building bicycle lanes and sidewalks as well as linking bike use with commuter services as they do in Japan and the Netherlands. Paris, France, makes low cost bike rentals available.

Urban water use can be reduced. Typically, water enters a city, becomes contaminated with human and industrial waste, and leaves the city dangerously polluted. The “flush and forget” system takes nutrients originating in the soil and dumps them into the nearest body of water. Rivers die and 200 dead zones have developed in ocean costal regions.

A low cost alternative is the composting toilet which composts both human and table waste. The soil-like humus end product can be used as fertilizer, reducing our reliance on chemicals and reducing the energy needed to deal with sewage. As water shortages intensify, ecological sanitation, or eco san, has projects in at least 12 countries.The Swedish Development Agency leads the movement. China leads the world, in use of urine-diverting, dry compost toilets.

For cities, adopting a comprehensive water treatment recycling system, reusing the same water continuously, may be the most effective step. Singapore, which buys water from Malaysia, is beginning to use this closed loop method. As well, industries such as paper and pulp, industrial laundries and metal refinishing are developing systems, which need to take in only a small amount of fresh water.

It is possible to farm in the city! The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reports that urban farms provide food to 700 million urban dwellers. In Hanoi, urban farms, or those in the city’s shadow, provide 80% of the fresh vegetables, 50 % of the pork and chicken and half of the fish. Many other large cities follow suit. Caracas, Venezuela, has 8,000 one square meter micro gardens. European cities have a history of community gardens. Citizens benefit from the fresh produce, exercise and psychological well-being. Vacant lot eyesores become bountiful gardens.

As long as the poor see the cities as places of hope, squatter communities are inevitable. Bulldozing them only results in more anguish for the disenfranchised. The challenge is to integrate them into urban life in a human way. If social services can be provided in the countryside, and industries are encouraged in small towns, the exodus is slowed. For those already there, cities must plan for the simplest of services such as composting toilets and taps for running water. Stability comes with improved housing and micoloans.

There are daily indications of interest in redesigning cities for people. Mayors and city planners the world over are beginning to rethink the role of the car in urban transportation systems – but it only a beginning.

Chapter 11—Raising Energy Efficiency

The melting of the world’s glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets threatens food supplies, and could result in increasing failing states “to a point where civilization would begin to unravel.” To address the problem, Plan B aims to reduce CO₂80 percent by 2020, to be achieved by ending deforestation and reducing fossil fuel use by raising energy efficiency and development of vast resources of renewable energy sources. Sequestration of CO₂ is not considered economically viable, nor is nuclear power, when full-cost pricing is applied. Since coal-fired power plants account for much of the global pollution but also much of the CO_2, they are being phased out in some countries and are falling into disrepute.

“Banning the bulb” is an effective way of reducing pollution. Switching from incandescent to compact fluorescent bulbs can substantially reduce electricity used—an estimated saving of $30 over the life of each bulb. Australia and Canada have implemented plans to phase out incandescent bulbs, while similar movements are gaining momentum in other countries, including Brazil, China, and the EU. Other measures are also being adopted, while simply turning out lights when not in use can result in significant savings. Using lighting technologies now available could result in energy savings that would represent not having to build 705 coal-fired power plants.

More energy-efficient appliances are being encouraged and are becoming available. One U.S. agency proposes raising standards for 15 appliances, which, if adopted, would result in CO₂ reduction equal to taking 8 million cars off the road. The use of electric appliances is burgeoning in China, and this, coupled with great growth in industry, has caused a sevenfold increase in the use of electricity between 1980 and 2004, and, although there are standards for appliances, they are not strictly enforced. There remain many options for reducing energy use in appliances. Refrigerators are available that use only a quarter as much energy as many older models now in use.And standards for appliances continues to move upward. A Japanese program was designed to raise efficiency standards from between 15 and 83 percent by 2007. Another area being addressed is that of power used in standby mode—energy being used while the appliance is not in use.

Substantial savings in energy use can be achieved by moving toward more efficient buildings.

In the U.S., commercial and residential buildings account for 70 percent of electricity used and 38 percent of CO₂ emissions, while world-wide, building construction accounts for 40 percent of materials used. Even in older buildings, appropriate modifications can result in energy savings of 20 to 50 percent. In the U.S., buildings can be certified for energy efficiency, based on such factors as site selection, energy efficiency, water efficiency, construction materials used, and indoor environmental quality. An office building in Annapolis, Maryland, the first to earn LEED platinum certification has geothermal heating, a rooftop solar heater for hot water, and composting toilets. Buildings under construction in the U.S.,. that have applied for certification number approximately 5,200 at the time of writing. A 60-story office building in Chicago is designed to save $800,000 a year in energy costs. An initiative of the Clinton Foundation, in cooperation with C40, an organization of large cities devoted to “tackle global warming and climate change, has brought together a number of the world’s largest banks and energy service companies to retrofit buildings to reduce energy use by 20-50 percent. The cities include Bangkok, Berlin, London, Mexico City, New York, and Tokyo. And an American architect has launched a program designed to eliminate the need for fossil fuels in building operation.

In addressing the problem of climate change and the need to stabilize CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, it is necessary to restructure the transportation system. Increasingly, people are living in cities and the role of the car is diminishing. In Europe, car sales have peaked and are declining. In the future, there will not be “enough economically recoverable oil” to accommodate a world-wide growing fleet of cars. Government policymakers at all levels are reflecting more concern for the environment. London has set a toll of $16 a day on cars entering the city center, and the mayor has proposed a $50-a-day charge on SUV's entering the city. And citizens support the proposal by a three to one margin. The City of New York is considering similar proposals. New York and San Francisco will require that all taxis be hybrids by 2012, with cars getting 30-50 miles per gallon rather than the present 14.

Drivers are experiencing worsening congestion with its increasing mental and financial costs. Relief is offered by encouraging greater use of light rail transport, buses, and bicycles, as well as walking. For distances up to 500 miles, greater use of high-speed trains save both time and energy. Such has been pioneered by Japan with its bullet trains, traveling 190 miles an hour, and carrying almost a million passengers a day. The system which began in Tokyo and Osaka, in 1964, now links most of Japan’s major cities. The European high-speed rail system began in 1981 and by 2007 had expanded to 3,034 miles, with another 1,711 miles planned by 2010. As an example of high-speed train use, when the link between Paris and Brussels opened, making the 194 mile trip on 85 minutes, rider ship increased from 24 to 50 percent, and “CO₂-intensive plane travel virtually disappeared.” The author deals with a number of other aspects relating to the need to restructure transportation systems.

Brown begins his section on A New Materials Economy: “The production, processing, and disposal of material in our modern throw away economy wastes not only material but energy as well.”Germany has pioneered with regard to using materials more efficiently. It is suggested that industry might increase the use of material by a factor of ten, i.e., using only one tenth of the material that is presently used. Industry accounts for more than 30 percent of energy used globally. The petrochemical and steel industries use roughly half of the energy used by industry. By using technologies presently available, use could be reduced by 32 and 23 percent, respectively. The use of steel greatly exceeds all other metals combined, the automobile, household appliance, and construction industries using the most. Although much recycling is taking place, much more could be done. The cement industry also is a large user of energy. China, which produces about half of the world’cement, uses production methods that are very inefficient with regard to energy consumption. The disposal of garbage is an area where energy can be saved by recycling. A method being used to reduce the amount of garbage going to landfills is the imposition of a landfill tax. New Hampshire in the U.S., encourages a charge for each bag of garbage, thereby encouraging residents to recycle. A U.S., city has extended reuse and recycling to the construction industry, thereby increasing the amount reused and recycled from 100,000 tons to 500,000 tons per year, and placing emphasis on deconstruction rather than demolition.

Some countries are requiring that products “be designed for easy disassembly and recycling.”

A U.S., company has turned to the “remanufacture” of heavy construction equipment achieving yearly sales of a billion dollars. Leading manufacturers of jetliners are aiming at dismantling and recycling 90 to 95 percent of jetliner parts. The recycling of electronic equipment and the fabric in clothing is being developed. Two nonessential products that account for huge amounts of energy are gold and bottled water. The point is made that tap water is subjected to much more stringent control than bottled water, and the energy to manufacture plastic bottles and transport the product to market is extremely large and wasteful of energy. Several cities are adopting measures to combat the use of bottled water.

There is a huge potential, worldwide, to reduce carbon emissions by the reduction, reuse, and recycling of materials. The author strongly urges the adoption of a carbon tax that would “help reflect the full cost of burning fossil fuels.”

(See end note on Chapters 11 and 12)

Chapter 12—Turning to Renewable Energy

There are many instances of change from fossil fuel based energy to energy from renewable sources. But the author stresses that the change needs to happen at a speed comparable to that which took place in the U.S., as it mobilized at the time of World War II. The author refers to the explosive growth in the use of computers and cellular phones to demonstrate how rapidly new technology can be adopted.

Some of the most notable instances of the change: Europe in 2006 became the first continent whose energy from renewable sources exceeded that from conventional sources. Projects in Texas could bring on stream as much as 23,000 megawatts of wind power, equal to that of 23 coal-fired plants. Solar power in China and geothermal in Iceland are given as notable examples.

With regard to wind power, China has enough “harness able wind” to double its generating capacity, while three “wind-rich” states could provide enough power to meet the needs of the U.S., and offshore wind resources could also supply as much as 70 percent of the country’s requirements.In recent years, wind generating capacity has increased from 18,000 to an estimated 92,000 megawatts.

The author deals with the risk to birds and the visual effect – the NIMBY (not in my backyard) problem and the PIMBY (put it in my backyard) response.One modern wind turbine can generate $300,000 worth of electricity, while a farmer can receive from $3,000 to $10,000 annually from royalties for each turbine.Wind farms, on land and offshore, are being developed in China, Germany, France, the U.K., Canada, and Denmark, as well as the U.S., where “Texas, the state that long led the country in oil production, has taken the lead in wind generation as well.” Brown’s Plan B calls for the development of 3 million megawatts of wind power by 2020—1 megawatt for each one of the world population projected by that time.

This level has already been surpassed by Denmark, with Spain and Germany close behind. In North America, there are idle assembly lines and skilled workers who could mass produce wind turbines.

CO₂ emissions could be greatly reduced by switching to gas-electric hybrid cars. Companies including Nissan, Toyota, and the “big three” of North America, are planning or in the process of developing plug-in electric cars. At the time of writing, there were advance orders for 11,000 such vehicles.

Energy from the sun, while the basis of all energy, is being used directly in a number of ways, most prominently with solar thermal collectors and solar photovoltaic cells. In China, 40 million rooftop solar water heaters are being installed—it is a low-cost technology that provides hot water to buildings where electricity has not yet reached. Companies manufacturing the solar collectors number about 2,000. These installations equal the electricity output of about 54 coal-fired power plants. It is suggested that other developing countries, where electricity has not yet reached rural areas, such as India and Brazil may soon follow. In Europe, because of high energy costs, many homes are using the sun-powered water heaters. In Germany, about 2 million homes have water and space heaters powered by rooftop solar systems. Such installations are now required by Spain in all now or renovated buildings.The possibility is seen that, by 2020, the power used for this technology could be the equivalent of 690 coal-fired power plants.

The use of solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity is also advancing. At the time of writing, worldwide capacity was about 8,600 megawatts and growing by 40 percent a year, doubling every two years. The production of solar cells is moving ahead rapidly, now being made in several countries besides Japan, Germany, and the U.S. Considering the cost of kerosene for lamps, replacing such lamps with solar powered replacements is quite feasible and such a system is expected to have a life of 25 years. Replacing lamps now in use would have the effect of reducing CO₂ emissions by about 52 million tons a year. Larger solar electric systems for general power provision are now in operation and their use is expected to continue to grow.

Another innovation is solar thermal technology whereby sunlight is concentrated to produce steam to generate power. Because low-cost power was available from fossil fuel sources, development has not progressed. Now with the cost of fossil fuel rising, solar thermal power generation has become more competitive and interest is growing rapidly. A case in point:“In June 2007 Algeria announced plans to build 6,000 megawatts of solar generating capacity for export by cable to Europe. ”An Algerian authority states:“our potential in thermal solar power is four times the world’s energy consumption.”In general terms, solar power generation is seen as being feasible on an immense scale.

Beneath the earth’s surface are enormous geothermal heat resources. A number of countries are already using geothermal energy. It may be used directly to heat homes, greenhouses, and swimming pools, or the heat can be used to create steam to generate electricity. Iceland and France are leaders in the direct use of thermal heat. The author states:“If the four most populous countries located on the Pacific “ring of fire” … were to seriously invest in developing their geothermal resources, they could easily make geothermal energy one of the world’s leading sources of electricity.”

In the section titled “Plant-Based Sources of Energy,” the author notes that “forest industry byproducts, sugar industry byproducts, urban waste, livestock waste, energy crops, crop residues, and urban tree and yard wastes” can all be used “for electrical generation, heating, or the production of automotive fuels.” In Sweden, district heating systems, fueled almost entirely by wood chips, urban waste, and lignite, heat almost half of residential and commercial buildings. A somewhat similar system operates in St. Paul, Minnesota, generating power, as well as heat.In the sugar industry, notably in Brazil, bagasse, the pulp remaining after extracting the sugar syrup to make ethanol, is burned to produce heat for the production process, as well as to generate electricity. The Brazilian process is now being adopted in other countries.

In Europe and the U.S., garbage is being burned to produce heat and to generate power.In the U.S., livestock and poultry waste is being processed to produce methane and fertilizer. As well, some corporations and utilities are capturing methane from garbage landfills.

In some places, notably in the U.S., and Brazil, grains are being processed to produce ethanol. The growing cost of feedstock is having an effect. The process has serious implications for the price of food and also increases pressure on the Amazon rain forest, but technologies are being developed to use cellulose from materials such as switchgrass, wood chips, wheat straw, and cornstalks to make ethanol. However, the American Solar Energy Society indicates, from studies they have done, that it is more efficient to burn fast-growing crops to produce electricity than to produce ethanol. It is estimated that 110 giga watts of electricity could be generated with such a process.

About 16 percent of the world’s electric power is generated from hydro installations, mainly large dams. However the sites for these is dwindling and there is concern, also, about the displacement of people.

The La Rance barrage in France is capable of generating 240 megawatts of electricity using tidal power. Other tidal power plants are under construction or being planned in South Korea, New Zealand, and China.

It is urgent that we move as quickly as possible to reduce the use of fossil based fuels. There is more than ample wind, solar, and geothermal energy to replace coal-fired power plants, and a gasoline and diesel driven transportation system. It means a rapid shift to hybrid and plug-in cars. As for the long-distance movement of people and goods, interestingly, General Motors recognizes that electric trains are “much more efficient than diesel-powered trains.” The transition has already begun but it needs to be speeded up.

(See end note on Chapters 11 and 12)

III. AN EXCITING NEW OPTION

Chapter 13—The Great Mobilization

Whether or not steps are taken to address global environmental problems, great changes are inevitable. “Saving civilization will take a massive mobilization, and at wartime speed.”

A number of indicators tell us that the “western … fossil-fuel-based, automobile centered, throwaway” economic model is coming to an end. The problem is to establish a new economy in the time available to us.If we fail, it is our children and grandchildren who will bear the brunt of a fracturing society that will result from our failure.

One factor is that our present global economic accounting does not include environmental costs—a new model must entail increased taxes on activities that are environmentally harmful, while lowering taxes on work – a large number economists favor such an approach.An honest market system and taxation policy should take ecological costs and services into account. With regard to stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels, the indirect costs to society of using fossil-based fuels must be incorporated into prices through taxation, with corresponding tax reduction to individuals. It is estimated that this would result in a gasoline price of $4 per liter ($15 per gallon). Average taxes on gasoline in several European countries are about $4.40 per gallon, still short of the estimated $12 per gallon reflecting environmental costs. Gasoline taxes in the U.S., are about 47 cents per gallon. (By comparison, combined federal and provincial taxes on gasoline in Canada average about 24.5 cents per liter ($1.10 per gallon).

A number of countries have adopted tax shifting in an effort to reduce CO2 emissions. On the other hand, several countries provide subsidies, estimated at about $700 billion per year, to companies engaged in environmentally destructive activities. Some countries have begun subsidy-shifting to combat the rise in CO2 emissions.

Plan B aims at a CO2 reduction of 80% by 2020. The author touches on several measures toward that goal:switching from coal to renewable sources of energy; moving toward plug-in hybrid cars; planting trees (which has a number of beneficial results); improving land management; moving to all-electric railways; with regard to diet, moving down the food chain; and increasing investment in renewable energy sources.

It is also necessary to address the problem of failing states – failing states represent a global threat in several ways. Some countries are already taking action to help alleviate the problem. Writing in an American context, Brown notes the need for the establishment, in the U. S., of a Department of Global Security, initially recommended by the Commission on Weak States and U.S. National Security, such agency to research and take action to relieve the problems of weak and failing states. He suggests involving young people in programs of assistance and notes the great reservoir of expertise and experience represented by retired senior citizens.

The author alludes to the monumental undertaking of “mobilizing to save civilization.” But he recalls how the U.S. transformed its economy to defeat the enemy in World War II. A similar effort is needed now on a global scale. Brown estimates the cost of Plan B to be $190 billion per year, compared to annual expenditures on arms, by the U.S., of $560 billion, or a total for the world of $1,235 billion.

Saving civilization can be done but it depends on individuals taking action, politically. But if action is not taken quickly, we are faced with the disintegration of society as we know it. Two primary concerns are to revise tax systems so that environmental costs are incorporated into the price of goods and services, and to revise fiscal priorities to provide the funds needed to address the problems that we face.

What You and I Can Do.

• Write or e-mail elected representatives
• Gather with friends and/or like/-minded people to consider action.
• Meet with elected representatives.
• Be informed.

*Note re Chapters 11 and 12 – to access a condensed presentation of these two chapters by Lester Brown et al, go to the web site of the Earth Policy Institute (www.earthpolicy.org) , click on the words “Time for Plan B: Cutting Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2020” and, on the next frame, click on the same words again.

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